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Prediction for CME (2021-12-20T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-20T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18584/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible in the east of SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. STEREO A COR2 data is not available. It is associated with a C4.4 flare from AR 12909 (S19E11) which peaked at 2021-12-20T03:21Z. This was followed by an eruption with dimming, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193 and 171 beginning at 2021-12-20T03:15Z. The material is also seen leaving the disk in SDO AIA 304. The source signature is seen as opening field lines in SDO AIA 171. | Update: "There is no clear CME signature on Dec 24-25. During the short-duration mag field rotations, the field is not much increased or quiet." - Lan Jian
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-23T15:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18606/1

This 3-CME simulation was executed once Stereo A coronagraph imagery became available (was backfilled) on 2021-12-21.

Model Inputs:
2021-12-20T05:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-13.0, Lat.=-1.0, Speed=357.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2021-12-20T14:35Z
2021-12-20T12:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-26.0, Speed=572.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2021-12-20T18:33Z
2021-12-20T15:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-19.0, Lat.=-15.0, Speed=303.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2021-12-20T23:50Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-12-23T15:46Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =8.2 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 7.0
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-12-24T03:03Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211220_143800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 38.07 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-12-22T01:42Z

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